Capital Investment Advisors

#207 – Investing At Market All-Time Highs

According to a recent Schroders study, just 4% of current retirees say they are “living the dream,” while another 4% report they are “living a nightmare.” On today’s show, Wes lists some primary concerns, including inflation and unpredictable market fluctuations. He then relates it to the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, each hitting all-time highs in May 2024, and how market history can possibly serve as a guide for long-term investing. Producer Mallory also stops by to compare and contrast her mom’s happy retiree core pursuits with her dad’s desire to keep working. Wes builds on this by describing a postcard he received from some happy retirees who are currently spending six months at sea.

Read The Full Transcript From This Episode

(click below to expand and read the full interview)

  • Wes Moss [00:00:03]:
    I’m Wes Moss. The prevailing thought in America is that you’ll never have enough money and it’s almost impossible to retire early. Actually, I think the opposite is true. For more than 20 years, I’ve been researching, studying, and advising american families, including those who started late, on how to retire sooner and happier. So my mission with the retire Sooner podcast is to help a million people retire earlier while enjoying the adventure along the way. Free to be one of them. Let’s get started. Welcome to another episode of the retire Sooner podcast.Wes Moss [00:00:39]:
    Just 4% of current retirees say that they’re living the dream in a brand new survey, and 4% are living a nightmare. All right, what’s our next topic? I’m going to let you decide what’s more interesting. The next topic for today, what happens when the market hits an all time high? Now, depending on when you’re listening to this episode, we’ve recently, maybe we’re at a brand new all time high, or maybe it was a couple of weeks ago when we, when we recorded this. But in May of 2024, the stock market, the Dow, the S and P 500, the Nasdaq hit all time highs. That can be scary for investors. What do you do from here? We’re supposed to buy low and then sell high. Doesn’t feel all that comfortable when the market’s already at a high in the rear view mirror. But believe it or not, those two very different topics I just brought up, only 4% of retirees are actually happy and investing in all time highs.

    Wes Moss [00:01:35]:
    They are related to some extent, and I’ll let you be the judge of which one is more interesting. Or maybe they just both work together. Welcome to the Retire Sooner podcast. Your host Wes Moss, along with producer Mallory here in studio today. Hey, Mallory.

    Mallory Boggs [00:01:52]:
    Hey, Wes. Thanks for having me.

    Wes Moss [00:01:53]:
    Are your parents in the 4% that are super excited and living the dream or the 4% that said they are, quote, living the nightmare?

    Mallory Boggs [00:02:03]:
    Morgan, I would definitely categorize my parents as in the 4% of living the dream. They are probably the first happy retirees that I ever knew, and that was well before they retired.

    Wes Moss [00:02:14]:
    They’ve got long before the retirees theater podcast. Well, really, your mom is only. So, how, your mom is what, 60 something?

    Mallory Boggs [00:02:20]:
    60. Oh, no, don’t put me on the spot with those.

    Wes Moss [00:02:22]:
    62, I think.

    Mallory Boggs [00:02:23]:

    Wes Moss [00:02:24]:
    And what about your dad?

    Mallory Boggs [00:02:25]:
    And he is 63. Three.

    Wes Moss [00:02:28]:
    So she’s actually, quote, retired. She’s kind of the traditional not working. However, what’s her, what’s her schedule look like?

    Mallory Boggs [00:02:35]:
    So she is probably the busiest person that I know. So. And she. To give some context, she retired recently from the Douglas county school system in Douglasville, Georgia. And so she. She was with those guys for a nice, long time, stayed with them for a long time because she really wanted to get the health care benefits that was.

    Wes Moss [00:02:53]:
    And did she have a pension?

    Mallory Boggs [00:02:57]:
    I don’t think she got the pension. I think what she got was just the retirement savings benefits. So really for her, it was all about the healthcare benefits.

    Wes Moss [00:03:04]:

    Mallory Boggs [00:03:05]:
    Cause she wasn’t with the school system for her entire career.

    Wes Moss [00:03:09]:
    All right. So she stopped that and now stopped.

    Mallory Boggs [00:03:11]:
    That, and now she’s replaced all of that time that she was working instead with everything else. So now she spends her time playing a lot of tennis. A lot of tennis. Like a slightly concerning amount of time.

    Wes Moss [00:03:22]:
    More than a few. Like two or three times a week at least.

    Mallory Boggs [00:03:24]:
    At least, like a lot. And my favorite part, too, is like, I’ve started playing pickleball now. Refuses to play pickleball because she doesn’t want to mess up her tennis game.

    Wes Moss [00:03:32]:
    That’s a dedicated tennis player.

    Mallory Boggs [00:03:33]:
    Oh, yeah. She’s very serious. And then it’s not that she’s going to be going and playing in one of the US opens or something anytime soon.

    Wes Moss [00:03:39]:
    She loves her tennis team.

    Mallory Boggs [00:03:40]:
    She loves it. She loves her tennis team. So she has a great time with that. So if she’s not playing tennis, though, she’s spending time with gardening club. She’s a president of that in Douglasville. She’s spending time with her church. She sings in the choir. She also volunteers and helps out with.

    Wes Moss [00:03:56]:
    That’s where you get your singing voice from your mom.

    Mallory Boggs [00:03:58]:
    It is. It is. Give her credit there. She definitely signed me up for chorus as young as she could, but that might have also just been to get me out of the house.

    Wes Moss [00:04:07]:
    So church and chorus and tennis and Kiwanis club.

    Mallory Boggs [00:04:12]:
    Yeah. And then when she’s not doing that, you know what? She is always making plans for her and my dad. We like to say that she’s the social chair of the family.

    Wes Moss [00:04:22]:
    Well, what about your dad, then?

    Mallory Boggs [00:04:23]:
    And then my dad. My dad’s a little bit more of what I’d probably consider a traditional boomer male. Right. Like, he is in real estate and he has been for his. Pretty much his entire career. And he loves what he does.

    Wes Moss [00:04:36]:
    Real estate builder or just owns real estate now.

    Mallory Boggs [00:04:40]:
    More of a builder, but also real estate. I don’t know. I feel like if you get into that world of real estate, it kind of just covers a lot of different things. Is what I’ve found. But he works with my aunt and uncle, his brother and sister. He works with my grandfather still, who is. He’s 87, seven years old, and he’s still working. So just to give some context.

    Mallory Boggs [00:05:02]:
    Yeah, yeah, yeah. And again, they all love what they do, and they also have a lot of control over their time, and I.

    Wes Moss [00:05:08]:
    Think that really lots of autonomy. Does your dad ever go away and does he ever take, like, a full week off or two weeks off or.

    Mallory Boggs [00:05:17]:
    Yes. Now, to be fair and clear, it’s my mother who plans all of that.

    Wes Moss [00:05:21]:
    But he wouldn’t do it on his own.

    Mallory Boggs [00:05:23]:
    I don’t think so. But they’re really excited. They’re actually getting geared up right now to go on one of the Rhine river cruises over in Europe, and they’re so excited about that.

    Wes Moss [00:05:32]:
    She’s kind of saying, look, you’re going.

    Mallory Boggs [00:05:33]:

    Wes Moss [00:05:35]:
    He’s going along for it and probably has a good time, but just doesn’t initiate it 100%.

    Mallory Boggs [00:05:39]:
    Well, that, and then my dad also is not huge on traveling out of the country, so in the fall, my mom actually found the Douglas County Chamber of Commerce is putting together a trip over to Italy for a group of people. So my mom actually went and looked into that, and she found three other girlfriends who were going. So they’re gonna go on, like, a single ladies trip with this group over to Italy in the fall.

    Wes Moss [00:05:59]:
    That sounds amazing.

    Mallory Boggs [00:06:00]:
    Yeah, that sounds fun.

    Wes Moss [00:06:01]:
    That sounds like a happy retiree. Your mom’s a happy retiree?

    Mallory Boggs [00:06:03]:
    Oh, hands down. My.

    Wes Moss [00:06:04]:
    Technically, your dad is still working, and he may never, quote, retire at all. I agree, which is also a really good form of living. Longer, full of purpose. There’s so many things I’m thinking about as you’re going through the story. First of all, the tennis thing is so real. I just think about active 50 year old, 60 year old, 70 year olds. It’s visible to see their longevity beyond the normal population. It really is.

    Wes Moss [00:06:31]:
    It actually makes me want to start playing tennis. I play golf and not tennis. I have in the past, but one of our advisors at our. Our firm was, like, a world ranked tennis player. He was in from South America, and, you know, was. I guess he was a pro at some point. I don’t know if he was, like, in the top 200 in the world, but I was thinking, I don’t know, there’s somebody. I almost have to force myself to get back to playing tennis, because it is the thing that extends life.

    Wes Moss [00:06:59]:
    Every time I talk to a family that I’ve worked with, that is a tennis player. And that sounds like your mom. They’re just, on average, seem like they are just in better shape in so many ways. So it makes me want to force myself to go start playing tennis.

    Mallory Boggs [00:07:16]:
    And I’m going to throw in there, too, though. I feel like we haven’t measured the benefits of pickleball. So if you’re not quite ready to jump in for tennis, I would suggest pickleball. And I gotta tell you, my dad also plays tennis, but we call it a little bit more of a drinking club than really a tennis club.

    Wes Moss [00:07:32]:
    Still, it takes a lot to get out there and run around. Yeah, it’s not like golf can be pretty sedentary, unless you’re, if you’re walking, it’s a big deal. You get a lot of steps, but otherwise, if you’re at a cart, it’s not, there’s not a whole lot of exercise there. Going back to. We’re kind of going back to, why are these retirees not happy? The other thought I had here, as you’re talking about this cruise, I just got, I got a postcard recently from. Well, I got a postcard a couple of months ago, and I finally just talked to is a family I work with that just went to, they just did a full round the world cruise, which you’ve heard of these. Remember, we talked about round the world. Robin, she was a call in to the radio show.

    Mallory Boggs [00:08:10]:
    Oh, that was one of my favorite stories years ago. Yeah.

    Wes Moss [00:08:12]:
    So this is just, this is a family I’ve worked with for over a decade, probably 15 years or so. And the husband is, let’s call it 80. The wife is still in her late fifties, so there’s a pretty big age gap, but both healthy, both really active. And they just did a full, the postcard I got was from New Zealand. But if you in asking this, I got a download from this trip. They’re in Asia, they’re in Singapore, they’re in New Zealand, they’re in near the Red Sea. This is crazy. Anytime you get near the Red Sea and this is like one of these super nice Viking cruises, they put razor wire around the boat to ward off pirates from attacking the ship.

    Mallory Boggs [00:08:58]:
    That doesn’t make me feel great.

    Wes Moss [00:09:00]:
    Yeah, but they say they have a couple armed guards on the ship, so they still feel super safe.

    Mallory Boggs [00:09:06]:

    Wes Moss [00:09:07]:
    Europe, they’re just the entire, it’s literally around the world. It’s six full months at sea. My question, my initial thought to them was that, was it too long? Like, did you get seasick, homesick too long? Sick and they had zero, zero issues with the amount of time. They would have done it for another three months.

    Mallory Boggs [00:09:29]:
    Oh, my God. I really would think that with that amount of time, especially in a cruise ship cabin. Cause those things are not big and those bathrooms are so tiny, you would get kind of tired of it. But I guess, yeah. I mean, you wanna talk about the.

    Mallory Boggs [00:09:39]:
    Adventure of a lifetime.

    Wes Moss [00:09:40]:
    Yeah. So it’s Viking. They said that it was an amazing boat. The food was amazing, the company, the people are super diverse and interesting and all sorts of jobs, from doctors to doctors to former CIA professors. So really, really was a very interesting set of crewmates, I guess. And every country they went to, they had some sort of living history professorship before they went. And then after they went sounded. It really does sound kind of amazing.

    Wes Moss [00:10:13]:
    I still would never want to sign up for that long away from home and that many months at sea. But for some people, it’s a pretty amazing trip. So again, I’d put them in the 4%. Now they figured out a way to pay for it. It didn’t bust their 4% role. They’ve got multiple income streams. They’ve got the happy retiree financial foundation. And they clearly are doing some of the other happy retiree lifestyle habits.

    Wes Moss [00:10:38]:
    Travel is one, travel with friends is another one. So they’re kind of checking all these great boxes. But this is a survey from schroeders that just came out and talks about essentially measuring happiness in retirement. So, according to the survey, just 4% are living the dream. I would put my round the world robbins the family that was just literally around the world on a cruise ship in that category. And then 4% say they’re living a retirement nightmare, which is sad to hear. There obviously are a lot of people in the middle. 44% say they’re comfortable, so that’s.

    Wes Moss [00:11:13]:
    That’s okay. But then 34% said they’re not great, but not bad. 15% said they are struggling again, according to these. These survey results. So that puts about 50% in the not so great camp. And I. And I don’t. I don’t love to hear that.

    Wes Moss [00:11:29]:
    And here’s why so many people are not loving retirement. Not living the retirement dream. Number one concern. So there’s five listed. 89% of respondents say inflation has lessened the value of their assets. And they’re just worried about being. They’re worried about being able to pay for what they want to pay for. 85% higher than expected health care costs.

    Wes Moss [00:11:51]:
    Also, that’s health and inflation related. 76% are worried about a major market downturn that could significantly reduce their assets. Hence why we’re talking about investing around an all time market high today, 69% say they don’t know how to best draw down their income. And number five on the list with 68% of folks the good old fashioned fear of all fears outliving their assets. 68% of people are worried that their money’s just not going to last. If you were to sum up all five, Mallory, they really come down to inflation. People are worried about their money is just not going to be enough. Their purchasing power is eroded.

    Wes Moss [00:12:39]:
    They don’t have enough savings to compensate for higher prices. It’s kind of inflation, inflation at every turn. And then throw in the worry of the market going down significantly and having irreparable financial harm to their portfolio, which then in turn can’t again produce enough income to pay for all the things we want to pay. Not keeping up with inflation, I feel.

    Mallory Boggs [00:13:03]:
    Like that’s such a natural human instinct to be worried about something that is the tiger in the grass that you might be worried about, because you do hear horror stories about people who have to figure out what to do later in life or maybe move in with their adult children. So I think it’s a valid fear, but I hope it’s one that with a lot of what we’ve talked about on this podcast, people can feel confident in their plan.

    Wes Moss [00:13:25]:
    So we’ve got some great statistics to give us some perspective around what happens once the market hits an all time high. It was a great study by RBC Capital that kind of goes back and looks at the market history facts. We keep hearing that inflation is coming down, but the past three years, the common man inflation gauge is still up over 20%. That’s necessities like food, gas, utilities and shelter. How can you possibly keep up? Well, one option is income investing. That’s using a combination of growing stock, dividends, bonds for more cash flow, and other areas that can be a hedge against inflation. Look, inflation is tough. Let us help you overcome it.

    Wes Moss [00:14:03]:
    Schedule a time directly with our dot that’s y o u, dot. So we’re going to be looking at the S and P 500 and what that’s done once the markets hit it high. In that same vein, what can quickly get overlooked is diversification. And as simple as that sounds, it’s kind of investing 101, financial planning 101, retirement planning 101. You can make the argument that the S and P 500 in itself is very diversified because it’s 500 different companies in the United States. You can also make the argument that if that’s all you have in retirement, even though you’re greatly reducing your single stock risk because you have 500 companies, you could make the case that just the S and P 500 in itself doesn’t give you that much diversification, because it’s so top heavy to a few companies, because the S and P 500 is market cap weighted, meaning that the larger the company, the bigger the percentage. So you have a handful of companies at the very top of the stack, if you will.

    Wes Moss [00:15:08]:
    That make up 25 30% of the entire index, whereas company number 400 9491 492 have almost no impact because they’re so small relative to the top few. So you can make a case either way that the S and P 500, yes, it gives you diversification, but it also doesn’t give you a whole lot of diversification. So just make the point that when we’re investing over time, to check some of these to help eliminate some of these fears. One which is a big market downturn, taking away a big chunk of your assets. If you’re really concentrated into one area, or you’ve had a couple stocks that have done really well over time and they’ve made, you’ve made a lot of money in a really narrow area, that’s where you can see almost irreparable harm if something happens to those companies. And the reason I bring this up is it’s not uncommon where people have a few companies that do really, really well, and it becomes a really big part of the portfolio.

    Mallory Boggs [00:16:10]:
    Oh, actually, isn’t this something that we talked about with the psychology of money, is investing broadly tail risk. Yeah.

    Wes Moss [00:16:17]:

    Mallory Boggs [00:16:17]:

    Wes Moss [00:16:17]:
    So you think about this is not uncommon where someone, let’s say these are real life examples of folks I’ve worked with, somebody back in their thirties, they buy a dozen stocks, and ten or eleven of those stocks don’t do all that well, and they just kind of fall by the wayside, or they don’t do a whole lot, or they end up being terrible. But one or two happens, they hold onto it because it’s doing well, and then that becomes, it ends up being the next apple or the next Nvidia, which in the 1990s, or the two thousands. Those companies weren’t necessarily the darlings of the market, but people held onto them and held onto them, and they can become a really big part of the portfolio. So even though diversification is investing 101, it’s not uncommon for investors to get undiversified because they have a few winners. Morgan Housewell called this tail risk one in 1000. That does really well to the upside. So I think it’s important just to reiterate making sure, particularly as we’re headed into retirement and we can’t afford big drawdowns like we can when we’re 20 and 30 and even 40, then diversification becomes that much more important. So we’ll start this conversation with assuming we’re diversified, at least as diversified as the S and P 500, which, again, you could make a case that that in itself is not overly diversified, but we’re at least taking away a lot of that single stock risk because the S and P 500 itself, again, 500 companies.

    Wes Moss [00:17:52]:
    Now, we recently hit an all time market high, and that’s why we’re doing this episode. And when that happens, sometimes it feels like you’re bumping your head on the ceiling and it doesn’t feel like a good time to be invested because the market literally is at a high. And how many times, Mallory, have you heard, buy low, sell high?

    Mallory Boggs [00:18:14]:
    I’m pretty sure I’ve got it tattooed on my forehead at this point.

    Wes Moss [00:18:17]:
    Buy, sell, buy low, sell high. So we face this psychological barrier to investing when things have already done great. And it makes you wonder, is it still a good time to invest or continue investing?

    Mallory Boggs [00:18:33]:
    I’ve heard this thing about the market. Apparently it will continue to go up and it will continue to go down. The only thing we know for sure.

    Wes Moss [00:18:40]:
    Well, the reason we’re investing to begin with is that we believe it will continue to go up over time, but certainly not in a straight line. So I think it’s natural to feel this hesitance in putting new money to work when prices are already at a peak. But the data is very interesting here. When it comes to how markets do subsequent or subsequently to hitting an all time high, these numbers were. I was a little surprised by this study. First of all, all time highs are. They’re not that rare, really. They’re not that rare.

    Mallory Boggs [00:19:17]:
    I feel like everybody gets so excited and celebrates these. You feel like they should be something that happens just every once in a while.

    Wes Moss [00:19:23]:
    Maybe it’s because it’s the milestones you really, they get reported on again. Most recently, the Dow hit 40,000 and people broke out the Dow 40,000 hats. They didn’t do that for Dow 39 or 38,000.

    Mallory Boggs [00:19:36]:
    That makes more sense.

    Wes Moss [00:19:37]:
    So since 1950, the broad us equity market. Again, we’re looking at the S and P 500 here. This is RBC Global Asset Management. This is their study. This is from January 1950 through the end of the first quarter here in 2024. So we’ve actually had a couple more all time highs that are in the study, but shows that we’ve had over 1250 all time highs since 1950, which averages out to more than 16 new highs every year. On average, 16 new highs every year. Now, it doesn’t of course, work quite that way.

    Wes Moss [00:20:16]:
    They’re somewhat bunched in good decades and bad decades in the two thousands. That was a tough decade. We had bubble with the financial crisis. Markets were largely, largely sideways for the better part of that decade, but we still had 13 all time highs during that decade. So 13 all time highs in ten years. But go back to the 1950s, we had 137 all time highs. The sixties we had over 200 all time highs. Maybe it’s also important to define an all time high is just any given day where the market reaches new record high territory.

    Wes Moss [00:20:53]:
    That’s a quote, all time high. The nineties, a great decade, we have 310 new all time highs. The so far in the beyond as of the end of the first quarter, 104 all time highs. Now, of course, that number has gone beyond that. These market events were pushing through the ceiling and raising the ceiling and raising the ceiling. They’re not all that rare now. What do investing returns tend to look like when it comes to investing? Post an all time high again. Think about putting money to work once the market’s already done really well.

    Mallory Boggs [00:21:35]:
    So if we’re talking about everyone says to buy low, sell high, we’re talking about buying high.

    Wes Moss [00:21:41]:
    Only buying high.

    Mallory Boggs [00:21:42]:
    Only buying high.

    Wes Moss [00:21:43]:
    Only buying high.

    Mallory Boggs [00:21:43]:

    Wes Moss [00:21:46]:
    Intuitively, you would think you just don’t do as well as what the market has done on average if you’re only picking these high points. Couple of things to note, though. Once the market hits an all time high, or anytime it’s hitting an all time high, it’s usually for a good reason. Not always. There are periods of speculation where markets are getting overvalued and they keep climbing beyond what they should be climbing. However, most of the time when markets are hitting all time high, it’s because the economy’s been good, earnings are good, profits are good, companies are doing well. So there’s kind of a reason we’re getting, getting to an all time high. So I think that’s important to know.

    Mallory Boggs [00:22:24]:
    This might be a crazy question, but with the market hitting all time highs, is there ever a point where it would cap out, or is there a point that we would feel like it’s out of sync with the rest of the economy?

    Wes Moss [00:22:34]:
    It’s not a crazy question. First of all, it’s the very sentiment that makes it hard to invest in an all time high. So you’re a human, and humans are slightly crazy. So you’re a human, and your thoughts around money, remember, are no one’s crazy. These are natural. This is exactly what a human brain should be asking about. This has happened. If you look at Mallory, I’m going to just pull this up as we speak, just so I get the dates right.

    Wes Moss [00:23:00]:
    You look at the Nikkei 225. So think of this as almost the Dao of Japan, the Dow Jones of Japan, but it’s called the Nikkei. And again, of course, these are japanese companies back in the very late eighties, early 1990s, the very beginning of the nineties, that hit, let’s call it round number, right around 40,000. Then it dropped all the way to 10,000 by the year 2011, and it slowly climbed its way back, and now it’s, again, recently hit about 40,000. All that to say, it’s reclaimed. It essentially reclaimed where it was, but it took over 30 years to do it. So, yes, this has happened in the world. Your exact question, they hit a ceiling.

    Wes Moss [00:23:44]:
    Now, there’s a reason for that. You can make the case that the market value got out of line, out of whack, with what the underlying assets were. People were paying too much for these companies. And then these companies stopped growing. They didn’t increase. Earnings and confidence shrunk. So multiples are how much people would pay per penny of earnings went lower and lower and lower. And it really put a cap on that market for several decades.

    Wes Moss [00:24:14]:
    And this is exactly why we should be scared at any given time, if markets don’t continue to grow, if we don’t have all of the tailwinds that over time make business in America, that american army of productivity that I think is so fundamentally important. If you don’t have that, then you don’t have companies that are growing. And the market should not continue to go up unless companies are growing. So I’m less confident that the stock market will go up over time. I’m more confident than in America, companies will continue to grow over time, and I believe the market will follow that. So it’s less about just the market continuing to go up over time. It’s more about why the market is going up. And that is army of american productivity innovation.

    Wes Moss [00:24:58]:
    We have 300 million plus people in America that get up and think about how to make a better economy, a better life for themselves. That translates into arguably the most productive bulldozer like move forward economy in the world. Complete tangent, but it was a great question.

    Mallory Boggs [00:25:17]:
    Well, it was really helpful to hear.

    Wes Moss [00:25:19]:
    All right, now let’s take a look at these statistics. Again, going back to the S and P 500. Once it hits an all time high, 1950 to the year 20 through 2023. Again, you could look at this as the worst time to invest. During these periods of time. However, the data shows that your returns investing at peaks relative to just investing over that whole period of time, the average return, they’re pretty darn close. Over a one year, a three year and a five year basis. For example, during that whole period of time, 1950 through 2023, the average one year returns are 12.6%.

    Wes Moss [00:26:05]:
    If you were only investing at all time highs, the average one year returns would be 11.2%. Again, still not as high as the average, which would make sense, but pretty darn close over a three year basis. Average annual three year returns during this period of time eleven and a half percent. This is looking all different. Three year rolling periods three year rolling periods on average looking at all three year rolling periods from 1950 to 2020, 311 and a half percent on average positive rate of return only investing at all time highs the average rolling three year rate of return 10.9 so pretty darn close. Even though you’ve got this quote, not so great timing, it also turns out to be not so bad timing. And then average five year periods. During that whole period of time, 11.3 is the average.

    Wes Moss [00:27:04]:
    Only investing at all time highs 10.3%. So again, pretty darn close. Keep in mind, this data covers some really tough periods of time. The financial the 2007 and zero eight financial crisis, black Monday in the 1980s, the tech rack in the early two thousands. So what about corrections following all time highs? This goes back to your question, Mallory hey, what happens if once we get to one of these, we hit a ceiling, which means we typically have a big drop? Again, almost a little surprising that post all time highs big corrections are fairly rare. We’ll look one year out, three years out, and five years out again. The data here is from Bloomberg and RBC Global Asset Management. Only 9% of the time after an all time high, have we seen the market correct or down 10% or more a year later? Three years out, only 2% of the time, five years out, 0% of the time.

    Wes Moss [00:28:08]:
    Hard to even believe.

    Mallory Boggs [00:28:10]:
    That’s really interesting. I feel like there’s got to be some kind of reasoning behind that.

    Wes Moss [00:28:15]:
    Again, the data is the data, and you can interpret a lot of different ways I think the biggest takeaway is that it first of all, anytime we’re extending our market horizon five years out, that in itself works in your favor to not be down 10%. Because the longer our time horizon, the higher the probability that we’re going to make money, at least over the course of history in stocks s and P 500. The other thought, couple that with you usually don’t get to an all time high unless a lot has already gone pretty right. And I think that’s a big part of this, too. So I loved your question today. It wasn’t crazy. Remember, when it comes to money, Mallory, nobody’s crazy. So the bottom line here is, of course, the future.

    Wes Moss [00:28:56]:
    It’s always uncertain as investors. That’s what makes it so difficult for most people. It’s always uncertain, particularly in the short run. But history shows that stocks and markets generally rise over the long run, over the long term. And not just because markets rise. It’s because companies in America are trying to bulldoze their way better, faster, more efficient over time. And reaching a new market high, or an all time high for markets, is a little more common than we might even think. And it does not, at least historically, indicate that returns are going to be a whole lot less moving forward.

    Wes Moss [00:29:37]:
    And it also doesn’t necessarily spell an upcoming correction. In fact, all time highs might actually suggest that more growth is on the horizon.

    Mallory Boggs [00:29:50]:
    Hey y’all. This is Mallory with the retire sooner team. Please be sure to rate and subscribe to this podcast and share it with a friend. If you have any questions, you can find that’s you can also follow us on Instagram and YouTube. You’ll find us under the handle Retire sooner podcasts. And now for our show’s disclosure.

    Mallory Boggs [00:30:10]:
    This information is provided to you as a resource for informational purposes only and is not to be viewed as investment advice or recommendations. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. There is no guaranteed offer that investment return, yield or performance will be achieved. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions for stocks paying dividends. Dividends are not guaranteed and can increase, decrease, or be eliminated without notice. Fixed income securities involve interest rate, credit inflation and reinvestment risks and possible loss of principle. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

    Mallory Boggs [00:30:50]:
    When considering any investment vehicle, this information is being presented without consideration of the investment objectives, risk tolerance, or financial circumstances of any specific investor and might not be suitable for all investors. Investment decisions should not be based solely on information contained here. This information is not intended to and should not form a primary basis for any investment decision that you may make. Always consult your own legal, tax or investment advisor before making any investment tax, estate or financial planning considerations or decisions. The information contained here is strictly an opinion and it is not known whether the strategies will be successful. The views and opinions expressed are for educational purposes only as of the date of production and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors such as market and other conditions.

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